Posts Tagged ‘economic outlook’

IRBA Notice: Russian Students – Spring School in Dublin Institute of Technology – 18th to 28th March 2015

March 6, 2015 Comments off

Dear IRBA Friends,

Dublin Institute of Technology, College of Business, is hosting  the ‘Spring School’ of students from St Petersburg  State University of Economics and Finance (Finec) form 18th to 28th March 2015.

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev and Dr. Jim Hanly will address the students at an informal event   on Tuesday 24th March in Dublin Institute of Technology. It will give the students an opportunity to gain insight into Irish – Russian economic and business issues.

Date: Tuesday 24th March 2015
Venue: Room 5050 of Dublin Institute od Technology, Augnier Street, Dublin 2
Time: 2pm – 3.30pm

The event is part of a longer visit of some fourteen students from St. Petersburg. “Finec” is a major provider of undergraduate and postgraduate education to some 13,000 students in a wide range of disciplines. Read more…

Is the ruble a basket case or oversold?

December 3, 2014 Comments off

by Chris Weafer, Macro-Advisory Ltd

At mid-session on the first trading day of December, the ruble had declined by 60% against the US dollar since the start of the year (over 70% since the start of 2013), and was down 45% against the euro (55% since January 2013). The obvious questions are: why has the ruble fallen so quickly and by so much? Does this collapse jeopardize Russia’s financial stability and raise the risk of a default? And, how much further can the ruble fall or is this another of those attractive buying opportunities that seem to be available in Russia every seven years?

Is the fall justified?

By most standard measures the ruble’s collapse has been extraordinary. That scale of decline is usually associated with an economy with huge debt obligations, a non-fundable budget and a current account deficit. Russia ticks none of those boxes. Total foreign sovereign debt is only at 3% of GDP, and total private sector foreign debt is at 33% of GDP and falling as a result of the fact that Russian companies are not able to refinance maturing debt on foreign markets. Despite spending approximately $70 bln in a futile defence of the ruble this year, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) still has $420 bln in foreign exchange reserves, a total which includes $180 bln split between two readily available sovereign wealth funds. At the end of the third quarter the trade surplus was over $150 bln, up over 10% from the previous year, the current account surplus was just short of $60 bln, i.e. double that of 2013, and the federal budget surplus was equal to 2.1% of GDP. Read more…

Some data and ideas on Russian economy

January 17, 2013 Comments off

By Constantin Gurdgiev. First published on

Russian economy quick summary of some latest stats and some disconnected ideas:

  • Q3 2012 real GDP +2.9% y/y down from +4% in Q2 and +4.9% in Q1 2012.
  • Expected Q4 2012 GDP growth +2.5%
  • November 2012 GDP growth of +1.9% y/y inflation-adjusted
  • Q1-Q3 2012 GDP +3.5% y/y
  • Q3 2012 consumption +5.1% y/y down from +6.9% in Q2
  • Expected full year consumption growth +4% y/y.
  • Consumer confidence down to lowest in 18 months (since Q2 2011) in Q4 2012 at -8, Q3 2012 reading was -6.
  • Industrial production is up +1.9% y/y in November, manufacturing activity +4%, manufacturing PMI at lowest level in 14 months in December at 50.0
  • Services PMI down to 56.1, from 57.1 in November
  • Composite PMI at 54.1 – a 4 months low.

Read more…

Video – IMF answering questions from Moskovites about the economy

August 12, 2012 Comments off

IMF asked Moscovites for their toughest questions on Russia’s economy. In response, the IMF’s Antonio Spilimbergo tackles challenges such as oil, funding pensions, growth and transparency for investors. Read more…